Archive for the ‘betting’ Category

Sports Betting Tips – Understanding the Concept of Value in Betting

Thursday, August 5th, 2010

Many inexperienced sports bettors don’t look into the concept of value well enough or completely ignore it when choosing a manner of play. An even more concerning fact is that despite its crucial role in sports betting, wager value is often overlooked by veteran bettors as well, which often leads to poor decision making and wagering errors even among the ranks of the seasoned players.

With both offline and online betting, the concept of value isn’t always dependant on the probability of a bet to translate into a win. Therefore, especially when wagering on the underdog with money line bets, betting opportunities offering good value don’t necessarily constrain the team you are wagering your money on to win that particular sporting event.

To illustrate this idea, let’s stick to football betting and suppose you pick a NFL team set at +200 in the sportsbooks. Now, if you expect this team to win 40% of the contests in the league, then you will still have a fruitful wager, despite the slightly negative initial prediction. In this example, if the team at +200 manages to snatch four victories out of ten games played, it means you will seize a nice profit. With this scenario, if you bet $100 to cash in $200, you will lose $100 six of the ten times (which is in fact the estimated negative record of 60%), but win $200 the other four times, which means in the end you earn a consistent profit of $200.

If you are familiar with the world of horse race betting, then this concept shouldn’t be completely new to you. Commonly known as an “overlay” among horse racing bettors, this type of bet gives you the chance to earn a better profit on your wagers whenever the odds are readjusted in a way that is favorable for the bettor – for instance, a horse originally rated with a 3-to-1 chance gets a 5-to-1 shot after the odds are recalculated.

The same hypothesis also applies in sports handicapping with money line sports bets. Moreover, the best part is that the rule doesn’t involve wagering exclusively on the underdog. For instance, when the best pitcher in an experienced baseball team is throwing against a poor pitcher in an average or weak team, the line may be set somewhere at -300. Supposing that your handicapping information suggests the favorite will claim victory in four out of five games played, it means you are seizing a wager that is both safe and profitable. You will have four out of five chances to earn $100 and one chance out of five to lose $300, in which situation you still get to walk away with $100 profit.

Concerning the best approach to finding value in point spreads, the rules are even less rigid here, as each team has a theoretical 50-50 chance of covering the spread bet. In the world of sports betting, finding value when wagering against point spreads means nothing more than placing money into a line considered to be a few points too high or too low, depending on the situation.

In case a team is rated with the first chance by five points over the opposition and the bettor thinks the correct line should in fact be nine points, then the value shifts to wagering on the favorite. In the opposite were true however, then the recommended course of action would be to place your money on the underdog.

Finding good value in sports betting is one of the main prerequisites to making good profits. As long as you keep a close eye on the odds and lines provided by online betting resources and place your bets at the right time, chances are you will be able to seize more winning opportunities.

How to Identify Winning NFL and College Football Picks

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

Whether you favor NFL picks or college football picks, football betting can be both very entertaining and lucrative, as long as you do your homework and know how to select the best possible options. With most football clashes being scheduled for weekends, there is plenty of time in between the matches to gather the handicapping information needed to nail down the winning picks, so make sure you do so.

Although for the regular player betting on the outcome of the Super Bowl game is the most tempting wager decision of the season, most experts strongly advise against this due to the crowds of occasional bettors that also decide to try their chances at it, thus seriously messing up the odds. Despite the abundance of NFL picks proposed by the sportsbooks each year on the outcome of the Super Bowl title contest, in many cases it may be better to avoid betting on these types of matches, or at least to keep your wagers small, in case the odds or sports lines happen to turn against you. By contrast, with so many other football games to choose from during the season, don’t hold back from getting as many well-informed weekly NFL picks as you can.

To come up with more winning NFL picks, you need to monitor all the information that you think might be relevant in helping you make the best betting decisions. Depending on the case, this information can range anywhere from fundamental things like player and team forms or home and away records to variables like weather, pitch conditions or refereeing. Additionally, try to make game trending work in your favor and bet on the teams that seem most determined to perform well and win. Good examples might be a strong team eager to rebound from a recent loss with a decisive win, a team with a cohesive game play, or a team with a tight, solid defense.

As a guideline, expect powerful teams to recover from a loss more quickly than others and be more driven to emerge victorious in the following game, and struggling teams that somehow manage to snatch an occasional win to return to their losing spree sooner rather than later. Other recommendable actions are wagering against teams that have freshly appointed coaches or those that are victims of one too many off-the-pitch conflicts and media scandals.

Although both approaches are similar to a point, the way you would normally come up with your weekly NFL picks should differ slightly from how you decide your college football wagers. The first and most sensible difference lies in the larger number of wager options that you usually get with college football tournaments, compared to professional football competitions. If you want to seize more of these additional betting options, it means you also have to work harder to gather useful handicapping and team trending information. Additionally, the crude age of the players involved in college football tournaments often translates into poorer on and off-the-pitch discipline, less composure, and weaker motivation.

Such additional factors sometimes render college football picks more difficult to predict, but some professional sports bettors don’t see this as an impediment and actually specialize in betting on the outcome of college football games. However, if you favor a safer approach, it might be better for you to stick with professional football betting and decide your NFL picks after proper handicapping and rigorous study of NFL scores, sports lines and odds.

Popular Approaches to Football Betting

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

If you know where to look, finding and grasping the information needed to maximize the chances of winning your sport bets is easy. In fact, with the right online sportsbook the whole game research deal becomes fun, interesting and even reassuring, judging by the confidence boost you get when you know you’re taking on the trade of online sports betting in a knowledgeable and responsible manner. To access valuable sports betting information, what you need is a good, trustworthy sports betting site with a reputation. However, knowing how to make the most out of the information you receive is an acquired skill, which comes with a lot of practice and playing experience.

If you’re new to the world of sports betting and want to find out more about the football betting options available to you before taking higher risks and placing larger wagers, the next section will help get you started on that. Considering how important it is to fully understand and master the basics before you can take on other more challenging aspects of football betting, let’s begin by having a look at the most common types of sport bets in the industry.

- Straight Wager: The most common variety of all, it refers to a single bet made on the outcome of a single game. Concerning football betting, straight wagers can be available on either money line, point spread or total-based contests.
- Betting on Totals: In order to win with this sport bet option, you have to guess the exact score of a game or come close to it by making a prediction that’s comprised within the minimum and maximum margins set by the bookmakers.
- Halftime Wagers: Often perceived as a complimentary bet to other sports betting options, the halftime wager can be placed during the half time break of a sporting event. Considering you already have some direct insight on the two teams’ performance on the pitch at the time of placing the bet – which makes it easier to predict the game’s outcome – halftime wagers are generally regarded as being “safer” than other sport bet options.
- Money Line Bets: With these types of bets you get a fixed plus spread (say +180 on the underdog) against a minimum wager fee (for example purposes, let’s call this one $50). For the mentioned figures, a winning bet snatches you back your $50 wagered, plus the fixed spread of $180. Betting on the favorite also involves a spread, but this time it acts as difference; to keep the same numbers, a – 180 spread against a sum of $50, means it costs $180 to win $50.
- Parlay Bets: Also popular as “accumulator bets”, parlay bets tie together two or more separate sport bets. To win with a parlay, you need to win all bets attached to it.

To polish your football betting strategies, give each of the described sport betting options a try and see how it works for you. Additionally, don’t forget to do you homework on previous games so that all your placed wagers are backed up by proper information. Make a habit of checking the handicapping information provided by online sports betting resources, keep an eye on the sports betting odds, make your picks knowledgeably and wait for the right time to place your wagers.